MBA - Negotiations and Conflict Management

Just finished my second MBA in Negotiations and Conflict Management. It seemed tougher, but graduated Summa Cum Laude, so the journey was well worth it.

Can the Fed Keep Printing Money? Yes, the government and the Fed can keep printing money, but the debt is still debt. They can keep inflation low by buying Treasuries, but what happens to interest rates when they eventually have us go bust? Can you imagine what would happen to the housing market if all of a sudden 3.8% mortgages jumped to 7%? Ouch! A spike in interest rates would actually help regular savers, though, so maybe the broader economy would not get hit all that hard. Who knows? It is a baffling economy, however, and it is not one driven by "free markets." It is driven by the Fed, and it is a head-scratcher as to where this all leads. But let's just take a break and enjoy the fact that stocks have soared as much as they have. Granted that some of the "too big to fail" banks did not deserve the bailouts they received, but as the Fed and Congress has repeatedly said, we avoided "something worse." Ben Bernanke was a student and professor of the Great Depression, and he vowed to not have us repeat that dark time. It has worked amazingly well, but Gentle Ben will likely be consulting at Goldman Sachs before we eventually find out if the strategy (which critics call a massive Ponzi scheme) actually worked. Is inflation coming soon, or have they kept it caged in the Fed's massive balance sheet. Who knows, but investors do not seem to be worried at all, as evidenced by the record close Friday for the S&P 500. Spring is here, college hoops are in action, and everything feels good right now.

Fiscal Cliff

President Obama returned to Washington to resume "fiscal cliff" talks on Thursday, after cutting short his holiday in Hawaii. Unfortunately, the likelihood of the president and Congress reaching a deal by the Dec. 31 deadline appears slim, as Democrats and Republicans have been unable to reach a compromise. The fiscal cliff refers to a series of expiring tax breaks, new taxes and spending cuts that will all take effect starting Jan. 1 unless an alternate deal is reached. Here are 10 ways your money could be affected if there is no deal reached by the end of the year: 1.Your Income Tax Rates Will Go Up The expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts on Dec. 31 means nearly every American taxpayer will see their rates go up when the rates go back to their 2001 levels. President Obama’s plan to avert the cliff includes keeping the current rates for middle- and low-income earners, while allowing the rates to increase for the highest income levels from 35 to 39.6 percent. Republicans have pushed to keep the tax cuts for everyone. 2.Your 2012 Tax Bill Will Be Huge As many as 28 million Americans are about to be slammed with the alternative minimum tax because a "patch" to adjust the AMT for inflation will not go into effect unless Congress acts. For middle-class households with kids and earning around $75,000, the AMT will add $3,700 on average to the tax bill for 2012 alone. 3.Your Paycheck Will Be Smaller The first paycheck of the year is going to be smaller for up to 125 million Americans after the Social Security payroll tax holiday expires on Dec. 31, raising the rate from 4.2 to 6.2 percent. 4.Your Tax Refund Will Be Delayed The Internal Revenue Service has said that without a deal by Dec. 31, tax refunds could be delayed for as many as 100 million taxpayers as the government agency scrambles to revise tax forms to reflect the changes post-cliff. 5.Your Kids Will Cost You More Money Among the tax credits that expire on Dec. 31 are several that help lower- and middle-income families with kids, including the Child Tax Credit, Earned Income Tax Credit, Child and Dependent Care Credit, and the American Opportunity Credit. All four revert to lower levels on Jan. 1, which could cost families hundreds to thousands of dollars in lost tax credits, according to CNN Money. 6.You Cannot Collect Extended Unemployment As many 2 million unemployed Americans won’t be able to collect extended benefits after Jan. 1, when the federal government’s unemployment extension ends as part of automatic spending cuts. 7.Your Stocks Could Wobble The stock market tumbled on Thursday after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said it looked like the the country was going to go over the fiscal cliff. Uncertainty over taxes could create more market volatility, experts say, but there is a silver lining: The Fed has promised to keep interest rates low for the next year, and that could help stabilize the economy overall. 8.If You Use Medicare, It Will Be Harder To Find A Doctor One of the spending cuts that will be enacted on Jan. 1 is a 30 percent reduction in the rates Medicare pays doctors. According to physicians' groups, the pending change has already sent doctors fleeing some health care plans, Forbes reported. 9.Finding A New Job Will Be More Difficult Mandatory spending cuts slated to start on Jan. 1 will cut into government jobs and jobs dependent on federal contracts. One report from George Mason University estimated that the cuts could cost 2.14 million jobs, the Christian Science Monitor reported. 10.High Earners Will Pay New Taxes For Obamacare High-earning taxpayers will pay a new 3.8 percent tax hike on net investment income, including income from interest, dividends, capital gains, rental and royalty income. Much of that same income group is also subject to a new .9 percent increase in Medicare taxes. These tax hikes are part of the Affordable Care Act and go into effect on Jan. 1.

Economic Updates

October 6, 2012 For the first week of October, which is a historically notorious month for the stock market, things turned out rather well. The "Rock-em, Sock-em" employment report surprised everyone, and you would think that we were on our way toward an old-school, 1980s-style boom. Even more surprising was learning that an ex-General Electric Chairman actually Tweets! That's right, good-old Chainsaw Jack was out there on Twitter saying that Obama's "Chicago guys" were "cooking the books" in making the employment picture appear a whole lot rosier than it really was. Welch may have had a point, and the government statistics may have been mathematically massaged higher, but if Jack Welch is turning into a conspiracy guy, then maybe we are all conspiracy buffs now. Critics of Friday's positive employment report were quick to say that a lot of the jobs were part time, and that the report did not reflect the "real" economy, but it was a solid sounding report just the same. Stocks initially rallied, but faded as the day went on, and finished mixed and essentially flat for the day. Stocks may have finished mixed on Friday, but the broader week was a win for the major indices, as we saw weekly gains of 1.3% for the Dow, 1.4% for the S&P 500 and 0.6% for the Nasdaq. The decline of 0.3% of unemployment levels from 8.1% to 7.8% sounded great at first, but the fact that the stock market ended the day mixed and flat meant that investors are not convinced that "Happy Days are here again." The buzz was that a lot of the jobs were part-time jobs and that a lot of the jobs were government jobs, which means stocks will need more solid economic affirmation if they are going to rally higher from these already extended levels. Once again, the cynics and critics of the government's numbers were not hard to find on Friday. Some economists make reference to the U-6 employment data, which includes those workers who are under-employed, as well as those who have given up completely on looking for work. Apparently, this U-6 reference would make the "real" unemployment level up around 14.7%. This certainly counters the 7.8% number we saw on Friday, and it explains why so many newly ordained "conspiracy" buffs like Jack Welch are crying "foul" as to how the government comes up with its unemployment numbers. Aside from the employment numbers, the stock market has another arch nemesis to deal with next week, and that is the launch of earnings season for the past quarter. We all know how vibrant the stock market has been this year, and we all know how that should have been reflecting a buoyant and improving economy. Should earnings disappoint, we could see some big selling pressure, but then again, with the stock market flirting with multi-year highs, how bad could the downside be? Stocks have had the wind at their backs for more than three years, and their resilience to any bad news has been impressive. Maybe earnings season will prove to be better-than-expected, and maybe the economic numbers will continue to improve. That would definitely have the bullish camp smiling, but it is definitely a challenging thought. The economic numbers for a bullish earnings season just do not seem to be in place, so we will just have to see how the season unfolds. Global tensions are continuing to rise all over the world, and we are also seeing pockets of spiking prices from everything from fuel to food. We had a solid up week for stocks, though, so let's head into the first October weekend of fun, food and football on a positive note. Leaves are changing all over, and it is a beautiful time of year to take a breather. But be ready to get back to "reality" at a moments notice. The crosscurrents we have mentioned are still in place, and this is a tough market to navigate.

OC Register Seminar on Foreclosure

« Previous PostNext Post »All Posts
Help is Here for Your Underwater Home
March 14th, 2012, 2:16 pm · · posted by abarker
Is your home underwater? Having trouble making your mortgage payments? Is a loan modification an option for you?

The Orange County Register is hosting a Short Sale Seminar on Tuesday, March 27. the 90 minute session is free to home owners but seating is limited so RVSP is required.

A panel of speakers will cover topics related to solutions and options available to homeowners who are facing foreclosure.

Sponsored by The Core Realty Group of Teles Properties, the presentation will include a panel of experts in real estate, mortgage, real estate law, financial planning and credit repair.

The key speaker for the event will be Greg Corpodian, a short sale specialist with Teles Properties. His team, also known as The Core Realty Group will speak for 60 minutes and will have a 30 minute question and answer session after the presentation. Distressed homeowners will be informed about options and alternatives for navigating through this stressful situation.

“This is a tremendous opportunity for distressed homeowners,” says Mr. corpodian. “The Core Realty group will also provide access to their entire team of professionals.

Guest speakers include Nathan Warran and Eric Crisp of NJW Law Group, Financial Advisor Scott Hadley of Independent Financial, Mark Coats of National Credit Federation, tax consultant Patricia Leung, and Nicole Francis of Raintree Financial. If you, or someone you know, are having trouble making their mortgage payments, this opportunity should not be passed up. Please RSVP as soon as possible at http://www2.ocregister.com/promos/shortsale/ or by calling 714-796-5060.

If attending this informational session is not an option, you can also schedule a confidential consultation with Mr. Greg Corpodian of the Core Realty Group at 949-610-5575.

Posted in: Short Sale Seminar • foreclosures • Greg Corpodian • loan modifications • Orange County • Santa Ana • short sale seminar • short sale specialist • Teles Properties • The core Realty Group

Weekly Economic Update!

The luck of the Irish is certainly still with the bulls this year as they closed out yet another impressive week higher, and headed into the St. Patrick’s Day weekend feeling like a bunch of leprechauns that just found a pot of gold. (Happy St. Patrick’s Day, by the way!). When the bell rang on Friday afternoon, the major indices were flat for the day, but definitely winners for the week, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all posting weekly gains of aabout 2.4% each. Now that is a great way to start a winter weekend!

We had generally solid news all week, but Friday's economic numbers made stocks step back and take a breather. That was likely why we saw the roughly flat close on Friday. The economic news was not too bad, but it was the sort of news that makes even the most bullish of bulls scratch their heads a bit. The first unsettling news came from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report, which came in at 74.3; down from last month's 75.3 reading. It also was below the 76.5 reading economists expected, which was the first monthly decline in sentiment since August.

Economic news from the inflation front also left economy and inflation watchers with mixed emotions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4%, and while it was below the 0.5% rise economists had expected, that rate still equates to 4.8% on an annual basis. It was also double the 0.2% increase we saw last month. The "core" rate that excludes food and energy rose just 0.1%, versus the 0.2% analysts had expected. Apparently, the 6% rise in gasoline prices we saw last month accounted for much of the spike in the standard CPI rate.

This definitely hints at inflationary pressures in the economy, and that is not what the Fed wants or needs right now. Maybe this was why we saw the yield on the 10-year Treasury spike from just below 2.0% in the past week or so to nearly 2.3%. Oddly enough, this spike in rates occurred precisely when precious metals prices fell this week. Oil keeps zigging and zagging, but it rose to around $107 per barrel. The interest rate scenario and the commodities markets are not overly suggesting inflation just yet, but they are worth keeping an eye on in the days and weeks ahead.

Bond guru Bill Gross from PIMCO was out there this week saying that inflation, higher interest rates and a weakening dollar were on the way. He said that the recent spike in rates might have been in anticipation of the "Operation Twist" bond buying by the Fed ending in the months ahead. Gross said that he thinks the Fed will HAVE to launch a QE3 program soon, or the Fed runs the risk of another BIG downturn in the stock market and a BIG upturn in interest rates. For this reason, the Fed sees more quantitative easing (QE-to-the-moon) sooner rather than later.
Call me or write me at (949)610-5575 or gcorpodian@aol.com

January Home Sales Up Again

Existing-home sales rose in January for the third time in the past four months, according to a release from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and inventory also fell the same month. Total existing-home sales increased 4.3 percent compared to the previous month of December and 0.7 percent compared a year ago in January 2011. Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.4 percent compared to the previous month and 20.6 percent compared to a year ago.